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The Oklahoma City Thunder are massive 12.5-point favorites for a decisive Game 4 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Los Angeles Lakers at Crypto.com Arena on Monday, beginning at 10:30 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video. The Thunder have a 3-0 lead in the series.
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Thunder vs. Lakers Predictions for Monday
Our computer model for this matchup predicts a final result of Thunder 118, Lakers 110.
- Moneyline Pick: Thunder (-599)
- Total Pick: Over 214.5 (computer predicts 227.7 points)
- Pick ATS: Lakers (+12.5)
Recent Thunder vs. Lakers Matchups
| Date | Favorite | Spread | Total | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/9/2026 | Thunder | -9.5 | 210.5 | -383 | +302 | 131-108 OKC |
| 5/7/2026 | Thunder | -15.5 | 211.5 | -1010 | +652 | 125-107 OKC |
| 5/5/2026 | Thunder | -15.5 | 212.5 | -901 | +602 | 108-90 OKC |
| 4/7/2026 | Thunder | -18 | 220.5 | -2439 | +1160 | 123-87 OKC |
| 4/2/2026 | Thunder | -9.5 | 232.5 | -385 | +304 | 139-96 OKC |
| 2/9/2026 | Thunder | -6.5 | 222.5 | -242 | +197 | 119-110 OKC |
| 11/12/2025 | Thunder | -8 | 229.5 | -326 | +261 | 121-92 OKC |
| 4/8/2025 | Thunder | -9.5 | 230 | -405 | +316 | 136-120 OKC |
| 4/6/2025 | Thunder | -9.5 | 231 | -410 | +318 | 126-99 LAL |
| 11/29/2024 | Thunder | -3 | 229.5 | -153 | +129 | 101-93 OKC |
Thunder 2025-26 Betting Trends
- Oklahoma City has gone 39-43-0 ATS this season.
- The Thunder are 16-15 against the spread when favored by 12.5 points or more this season.
- The teams have hit the over in 45 of Oklahoma City's 82 games with a set total.
- The Thunder have entered the game as favorites 77 times this season and won 62, or 80.5%, of those games.
- This season, Oklahoma City has won 31 of its 34 games, or 91.2%, when favored by at least -599 on the moneyline.
Lakers 2025-26 Betting Trends
- Los Angeles' ATS record is 45-37-0 this year.
- The Lakers are winless against the spread (0-2) when playing as at least 12.5-point underdogs.
- Of Los Angeles' 82 games with a set total, 42 have hit the over (51.2%).
- The Lakers have been the moneyline underdog 33 total times this season. They've gone 15-18 in those games.
- Los Angeles has not yet won a game when they entered play as a moneyline underdog with odds of +439 or longer in two chances.
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Thunder vs. Lakers Injury Report
Thunder
Thunder:
Thomas Sorber: Out For Season (Knee),
Jalen Williams: Out (Hamstring)
Lakers
Lakers:
Luka Doncic: Out (Hamstring)
Thunder vs. Lakers Game Time and TV Channel
- Game day: Monday, May 11, 2026
- Game time: 10:30 p.m. ET
- TV channel: Amazon Prime Video
- Location: Los Angeles, California
- Arena: Crypto.com Arena
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