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The Los Angeles Lakers are big 10.5-point underdogs heading into a decisive Game 4 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Oklahoma City Thunder at Crypto.com Arena on Monday, starting at 10:30 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video. The Thunder are on top 3-0 in the series.
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Thunder vs. Lakers Predictions for Monday
Our computer projections model for this matchup calls for a final result of Thunder 118, Lakers 110.
- Moneyline Pick: Thunder (-538)
- Total Pick: Over 214 (computer predicts 227.7 points)
- Pick ATS: Lakers (+10.5)
Recent Thunder vs. Lakers Matchups
| Date | Favorite | Spread | Total | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/9/2026 | Thunder | -9.5 | 210.5 | -383 | +302 | 131-108 OKC |
| 5/7/2026 | Thunder | -15.5 | 211.5 | -1010 | +652 | 125-107 OKC |
| 5/5/2026 | Thunder | -15.5 | 212.5 | -901 | +602 | 108-90 OKC |
| 4/7/2026 | Thunder | -18 | 220.5 | -2439 | +1160 | 123-87 OKC |
| 4/2/2026 | Thunder | -9.5 | 232.5 | -385 | +304 | 139-96 OKC |
| 2/9/2026 | Thunder | -6.5 | 222.5 | -242 | +197 | 119-110 OKC |
| 11/12/2025 | Thunder | -8 | 229.5 | -326 | +261 | 121-92 OKC |
| 4/8/2025 | Thunder | -9.5 | 230 | -405 | +316 | 136-120 OKC |
| 4/6/2025 | Thunder | -9.5 | 231 | -410 | +318 | 126-99 LAL |
| 11/29/2024 | Thunder | -3 | 229.5 | -153 | +129 | 101-93 OKC |
Thunder 2025-26 Betting Trends
- Oklahoma City is 39-43-0 ATS this season.
- In games this season they were favored by 10.5 points or more, the Thunder have a 22-21 record against the spread.
- A total of 45 of Oklahoma City's 82 games with a set total have hit the over (54.9%).
- The Thunder have entered the game as favorites 77 times this season and won 62, or 80.5%, of those games.
- Oklahoma City has a record of 34-3, a 91.9% win rate, when it's favored by -538 or more by oddsmakers this season.
Lakers 2025-26 Betting Trends
- Los Angeles' ATS record is 45-37-0 this year.
- The Lakers are 0-2 against the spread when an underdog by 10.5 points or more this season.
- A total of 42 of Los Angeles' 82 games with a set total have hit the over (51.2%).
- The Lakers have been the underdog on the moneyline 33 total times this season. They've finished 15-18 in those games.
- Los Angeles has not yet won a game when entering as a moneyline underdog with odds of +398 or longer in two chances.
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Thunder vs. Lakers Injury Report
Thunder
Thunder:
Jalen Williams: Out (Hamstring),
Thomas Sorber: Out For Season (Knee)
Lakers
Lakers:
Luka Doncic: Out (Hamstring)
Thunder vs. Lakers Game Time and TV Channel
- Game day: Monday, May 11, 2026
- Game time: 10:30 p.m. ET
- TV channel: Amazon Prime Video
- Location: Los Angeles, California
- Arena: Crypto.com Arena
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