The death of the Pac-12 has been greatly exagerrated. The expanded college football playoff debuts in 2024 and guarantees the six highest-ranked conference champions a spot in the postseason, essentially securing the Pac-12's future. While the new Pac-12 won't secure the same TV revenue as leagues like the Big Ten and the SEC, the path to the playoff could be easier in the Pac-12 then trying to secure a spot in a 16 or 20-team super conference. So, where does the conference turn next following the defections of USC and UCLA for the Big Ten?
Now that the news of UCLA's departure for the Big Ten in 2024 is officially official, the Pac-12 turns its attention to its next TV deal. The timeline appears to be sooner rather than later, with Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff hinting towards an announcement in early 2023. Most expect the Pac-12's media rights agreement to be comparable to the one that the Big 12 recently negotiated with FOX and ESPN that will pay each institution roughly $32-million per year. Once a new media rights agreement is signed, the Pac-12's schools will be locked in for the length of the agreement, essentially securing the league's future (at least in the short-term).
Once a media rights agreement is secured, the league must decide whether it expands or not. Without USC and UCLA the Pac-12 is by far the smallest Power Five league with just ten members, potentially leaving it without enough "inventory" to satisfy its media partners (while also leaving the league susceptible to future poaching by other Power Five leagues). The league also has a huge void in Southern California due to the losses of the Trojans and the Bruins.
In the event the conference desires expansion, San Diego State seems like the most logical fit. The Aztecs have a winning pedigree in football and men's basketball, a brand-new state-of-the-art $310-million dollar football stadium and of course are located squarely in Southern California, which would help fill the void left by USC and UCLA. The Pac-12 may have competition for the Aztecs though as the Big 12 conference has expressed a desire for westward expansion.
Options beyond San Diego State aren't as clear although reports have indicated that SMU, Fresno State, UNLV, Boise St. and others could be considered if the league desires to return to 12 members. One other possible scenario is to add Gonzaga to bolster's the league's place in men's basketball.
The expanded college football playoff has secured the Pac-12's future. Now the conference must decide its path forward.